Iraq elections: calls for swift results as Iraqis go to the polls

Fears that wrangling over the results will trigger a return to violence has overshadowed last-minute campaigning for the Iraqi election.


By Richard Spencer in Baghdad
Published: 8:07PM GMT 05 Mar 2010


Female supporters wave Iraqi flags at a rally for Ammar Al-Hakim in Baghdad

The lead-up to Saturday's vote has been more peaceful than most Iraqis and international observers dared predict.

Violence has risen overall but rumours of al-Qaeda "spectaculars" in Baghdad, similar to suicide car-bombings that killed hundreds of people last year, have so far been unfulfilled.
Western diplomats are hailing the election as the best hope for democracy since the 2003 invasion.

Polls are unreliable but Nuri al-Maliki, the prime minister, is seen as marginal favourite to become the first Iraqi leader ever to be returned to power by the will of the people.

But a close result without a clear winner could lead to months of stagnation, allegations of fraud and outside interference, and a threat of renewed violence.

"Thing are already getting worse," said Omar Majid, a member of one of the "Awakening Council" patrols held responsible for bringing order to the streets of Iraq's cities after the sectarian chaos of three years ago.

"There are already holes in the security, and we are getting weaker."

The creation of the Awakening Council to take on al-Qaeda in Sunni areas, combined with an all-out assault on Shia militias by Mr Maliki and US forces, has been credited with returning Iraq to a semblance of normality.

Security is intense, but blast walls established everywhere against car bombs and rocket attacks are emblazoned with campaign posters.

A measure of the increased freedom since the Islamist gangs were brought under control is the prominence of women candidates, their unveiled portraits in smart suits attracting widespread attention and, it is claimed, traffic jams.

They have also sparked political jokes.

"That woman is ten years older than her picture," said an Iraqi of one candidate. "You see how the politicians are already lying to us."

Mr Majid patrols the streets of Adhamiyah, a Baghdad suburb that became notorious for "IEDs" – improvised explosive devices stuck under cars or left at the side of the road.

His colleague, Mutlab Ali Kudhir, 27, described how he joined the Awakening Council after an al-Qaeda gang burst into his house and shot his wife dead in front of him two years ago.

"They killed her because she was Shia," he said. "We had no warning."

Now most of the patrol's members will be voting for Mr Maliki's main opponent, Ayad Allawi.

Like Mr Maliki, Mr Allawi is Shia but he stands on an anti-sectarian ticket.

But that means, in effect, most of the Sunni community will vote for his electoral block while the majority Shia will vote for either Mr Maliki or a conservative Shia Islamist alliance.

"The more honest candidates still admit that this election will follow sectarian lines," said a western diplomat.

That leaves the fear that whichever group loses out will take up arms again.

Even if Mr Maliki wins, he is unlikely to gain a majority, with many analysts fearing it will take several months to negotiate a coalition.

US forces are now preparing to delay their pull-out, due to start in earnest in August.

"The most likely scenarios will probably lead to protracted negotiations," said Kenneth Pollack, a Middle East security analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

"That could hamstring the functioning of the Iraqi government for some time to come, and might well provoke renewed violence."

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